Basketball fans will want seven, but game six has to come first. Fortunately, that battle will be at 6:30 p.m. EDT on Thursday. The Indiana Pacers (3-2; 46-38-3 ATS) get to host, for possibly the final time this season, at 6:30 p.m. EDT. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Bucks (2-3; 43-42-2 ATS) are seeking a victory in Gainbridge Fieldhouse for the first time all season.

Bucks Beat the Odds

Minus their two stars, Milwaukee managed to win game five 115-92. It was the second time this series, and this season, that the defense held Indiana under 120 points, let alone 95. However, the Bucks are allowing 128.8 points per contest. It’s do or die for this defense, which has held the Pacers to 34.8% from deep during this series. Unfortunately, the Bucks are surrendering 40.8 three-point attempts per game in this series. This group that ended the season with the NBA’s fourth-highest defensive rebounding percentage has struggled with that in the postseason. Milwaukee is still struggling to force turnovers. Can this defense come up big in Indiana for the first time all season?

Offensively, April was rough for this club, which was fourth in scoring during the regular season with 119.0 points per contest. They only reached 115 points thrice in 13 games that month. Will May change that for Milwaukee, even without their top guns? They hope so, as Khris Middleton has taken on the primary scoring role. He’s averaging 24.4 points on 48.9% shooting in this series. As a team, the Bucks have a 59.0% true shooting percentage, an 87.4% free throw percentage, and have averaged only 10.4 turnovers per contest. Their greatest flaw has been offensive rebounding, which isn’t much different from the regular season. Let’s see if Milwaukee can earn another game in Fiserv Forum. 

Key Injuries – Giannis Antetokounmpo (doubtful); Damian Lillard (doubtful)

Indiana In a Must Win

Even with two more chances to close out this series, the Pacers do not want to go back to Milwaukee. So, game six has become the most important game of their season thus far. For Indiana, everything hinges on their offense. This group may have eight games with more than 120 points against the Bucks this season, but they’ve labored through the playoffs. A 67.8% clip at the free throw line is not helping. The Pacers were sixth in turnover percentage this season and have only averaged 9.6 during the playoffs. Indiana’s offensive rebounding in this series (11.0 per game) is higher than their regular season average. Getting shots up isn’t the issue, but rather the Pacers are uncharacteristically inaccurate after five games. Thursday would be the perfect time for the NBA’s highest-scoring team of the 2023-24 campaign to play the part. 

Defensively, Indiana has stepped up, as the Bucks haven’t reached 120 points in a game during this series. The Pacers gave up 120.2 points per game (27th) during the regular season. Indiana has struggled to force missed field goals during the series. However, they’ve done a solid job keeping the Bucks off the free throw line (19.0 per game). The Pacers were 26th in defensive rebounding percentage yet Milwaukee is only grabbing 8.4 per game. Can the Pacers slow them down enough to wrap up their first round series?

Key Injuries – Benedict Mathurin (out); Tyrese Haliburton (questionable)