On Saturday, the Miami Heat (31-25) battle the Orlando Magic (23-33) to become the kings of Florida. It’s the second of four regular-season contests between the two teams. The heat came out on top 110-105 in the first but Orlando covered the +8.5 while the total went under 219. For this chapter, the spread is Miami -2 while the total is 220.5. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 pm ET at the Amway Center.

Heat Trudging Along to Lead the Southeast Division
Miami is at the top of the Southeast with the Atlanta Hawks being their closest competition 3 games back in the standings. They’re 6-3 in their last nine games with the most recent win coming against the Houston Rockets 97-95. The Heat lost the rebounding battle 47 to 40 and gave up 10 offensive boards. They made 12 threes on a below-average 31.6% shooting as well. Their 11 steals and six blocks were big from their defense, and their incredible free throw shooting (21-22, 95.5%) helped them to secure the win. The Rockets comparatively shot 18-24 (75.0%) at the charity stripe which did end up costing them. Even with Jimmy Butler’s heroics to win the game, the Heat failed to cover the -12.5 spread while the total went under 220.5.

The Heat have been ramping up as the season has gone along. At one point they were ranked in the bottom two for both effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and opponents’ eFG%. Today they’re ranked 27th (52.1%) and 25th (55.6%) respectively. They boast the second-highest free throw percentage (82.5%) and the second-best defensive rebound rate (78.5%). They’re the best squad in the league at forcing turnovers, averaging an opponent turnover rate of 15.0% in large part thanks to their 7.8% steal rate (ranked 2nd). They also don’t give the rock away often themselves, ranked 7th in turnover rate at 12.0%. Their defense allows the second least points in the paint per game (44.7) and the fourth least fastbreak points per game (12.0).

Miami is 21-32-2 ATS so far this season.

The Magic Are Better Than People Are Giving Them Credit For
Orlando has won four of their last six games, including wins over the Philadelphia 76ers, Minnesota Timberwolves, and more recently the first seed in the Western Conference Denver Nuggets, 115-104. The Magic outrebounded them 47 to 39 including grabbing 15 offensive boards. They hustled hard on defense, racking up 12 steals and 6 blocks to help force 16 turnovers from the Nuggets while only committing 10 themselves. Overall, Orlando had 13 more shot attempts than Denver in the game and hit them at a 48.5% clip compared to 46.4%. They blew the +5 spread out of the water while the total went under 229.5.
The Magic are not tanking this season and the stats show it. They’re ranked 21st in eFG% (53.5%) and 22nd in opponent eFG% (55.0%). They’re especially good at drawing fouls, earning 0.301 free throw attempts per field goal attempt (ranked 3rd). Defensively they hold opponents to 34.9% from three, ranked 7th. Their defensive rebound rate of 77.1% is very solid, ranking 8th while their offensive rebound rate of 23.6% ranks 16th. As a young team, they do struggle with turnovers, averaging a 13.3% turnover rate (ranked 26th). They’re decent at defending the interior, holding opponents to 48.0 points in the paint per game (ranked 6th).

Orlando is 32-23-1 ATS on the season.