Predictions for Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura and Top Restricted NBA Free Agents

Everyone involved in NBA free agency comes prepared for cutthroat negotiations, posturing, uncertainty and stress-induced ulcers. All parties know the process can be unpleasant.

However, even the most steely-eyed executives and well-prepared players squirm a little extra when it comes to restricted free agency.

The whole process seems designed for discomfort.

Start with the novel concept that signing an offer sheet guarantees nothing. Incumbent teams have the right to match any contract their restricted free agent inks with another organization. Sometimes, teams match just to preserve the asset for a future trade, not because they want to retain the player. That’s when things can get awkward.

Plus, if a player reaches restricted free agency in the first place, it means he and his team couldn’t agree on a deal at any point in the previous year. There’s an emotional “are we still cool?” angle to the process that doesn’t exist in other transaction types.

Keep that in mind as we lay out predictions for this summer’s top restricted free agents, all of whom will draw interest from multiple teams and all of whom should be prepared for a wild ride.

Rui Hachimura, Los Angeles Lakers

The Los Angeles Lakers gave up three second-round picks to get Rui Hachimura from the Washington Wizards and promptly advertised their intention to keep him in free agency, two early factors that suggested it would take a significant offer to pry him away.

The 25-year-old’s postseason work simultaneously drove up his earning power and cemented the Lakers’ belief that he was a keeper. In 16 playoff games, he shot 48.7 percent from long distance and displayed impressive defensive heft. He held up adequately against centers, which allowed Anthony Davis to roam as a disruptor, unlocking some of L.A.’s most potent defensive lineups.

Prior to his time in Los Angeles, Hachimura was a volume shooter who liked mid-rangers a little too much and struggled to impact the game defensively. After starting regularly in his first two years with the Wizards, his role shrank and he came off the bench in 83 of his final 105 games with the team.

His playoff run obscures it, but Hachimura was mostly the same underwhelming player during his 33 regular-season games with the Lakers, averaging 9.6 points and shooting just 29.6 percent from deep.

The playoffs carry extra weight, so we should expect the Lakers to view Hachimura as the player who shone against the Memphis Grizzlies, Golden State Warriors and (to a lesser extent) Denver Nuggets. Other teams that didn’t experience The Postseason Rise of Rui firsthand might not be so thoroughly sold, which should keep offer sheets low.

Prediction: Hachimura signs a three-year, $33 million contract with the Lakers.

Cameron Johnson, Brooklyn Nets

NBA executives who spoke with Michael Scotto of HoopsHype projected a four-year, $90 million deal for Brooklyn Nets restricted free agent Cameron Johnson.

That seems a little low.

Johnson, 26, became a regular starter for the first time last season but has never occupied anything like a starring role. Don’t let that sucker you into thinking the market will only be lukewarm for his services.

The 6’8″ combo forward is a career 39.3 percent shooter from beyond the arc and proved he could contribute to a winner by logging major minutes for Phoenix Suns teams that made the Finals in 2021 and won 64 games the following season. Throw in three straight years of positive Defensive Estimated Plus/Minus figures, headlined by 2022-23’s plus-1.9, which ranked in the 96th percentile, and you’ve got the premium plug-and-play support piece everyone covets.

Rebuilders such as the Utah Jazz and Charlotte Hornets would be wise to tender offer sheets, as would teams further along in the construction process like the Indiana Pacers and Utah Jazz. Throw in the Orlando Magic, Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs for completeness’ sake.

All that competition will drive prices skyward, which means the Nets must prepare themselves to match a nine-figure offer if they want to retain Johnson’s services over the next four seasons.

Prediction: The Nets match the Indiana Pacers’ four-year, $100 million offer sheet to keep Johnson.

Austin Reaves, Los Angeles Lakers

No restricted free agent is poised for a bigger come-up than Austin Reaves, who went from undrafted camp invitee to critical playoff starter in the span of two years. He’s the biggest reason the Lakers should avoid going the cap-space, superstar-hunting route this offseason.

Maybe LeBron James wants a Kyrie Irving reunion, and maybe the ultra-talented point guard would take less than the max to sign in L.A. But inking Irving would require the Lakers to gut their roster, renounce rights to every free agent they have and then figure out how to build a bench with minimum salaries.

All things considered (on and off the court), Reaves is simply better value than Irving—even if you’re just making a one-to-one comparison and not weighing the other associated costs of rostering the unreliable eight-time All-Star. Or that keeping Reaves would also allow the Lakers to retain Hachimura and several of the other free agents who contributed to the league’s second-best record after the All-Star break.

We’re talking about a 24-year-old combo guard who played the point in college and posted an assist-to-usage ratio that ranked in the 91st percentile among wings. He is a preposterously efficient scorer whose 68.7 true shooting percentage was fourth in the league among players who attempted at least 450 shots, and he ranked in the 100th percentile (tough to beat that) in foul-drawing. He is either a star hiding in plain sight or an elite role-playing starter. Either way, he’s worth a ton.

The most the Lakers can offer Reaves is four years and $51 million, but they can match any offer sheet from another team, all the way up to four years and $98 million.

Controversial opinion: Los Angeles should expect someone to offer Reaves the max, and it should also match it immediately.

Prediction: Reaves signs a four-year, $98 million offer sheet with the San Antonio Spurs, which the Lakers match.

PJ Washington, Charlotte Hornets

The Charlotte Hornets tried to keep PJ Washington from reaching free agency, but according to Michael Scotto of HoopsHype, their preseason four-year offer in the $50-52 million range wasn’t in line with his asking price of $20 million per season.

Coming off a campaign with averages of 15.7 points, 2.4 assists and 149 made triples—all career highs—the 24-year-old’s expectations probably haven’t diminished.

Charlotte can justify holding to its previous offer, as Washington is far from a perfect player. He’s posted a negative Box Plus/Minus in every year of his career and only once produced a true shooting percentage above the league average, despite a shot diet high on threes. Add to that his inability to rebound and defend the rim as a small-ball center, and he may have a hard time making his case as a clear-cut starter on a good team.

That said, Charlotte lineups with Washington spacing the floor as a 5 have historically scored in bunches. In 2020-21 and 2021-22, those configurations piled up enough points to offset a porous defense and produce substantially positive net ratings. Perhaps if surrounded by enough defensive versatility, Washington-at-center lineups could work on another team.

The Hornets have the No. 2 pick, which could enable them to draft Washington’s cheaper replacement. Add to that the potential for new ownership to clean house and cut costs, and it’s easy to imagine Charlotte deciding four years is enough of a sample to deem him expendable, especially if he secures an offer sheet in his desired range.

Prediction: The Sacramento Kings sign Washington to a three-year, $66 million contract. Charlotte declines to match.

Grant Williams, Boston Celtics

Grant Williams has made solid contributions to highly successful Boston Celtics teams during his four-year career, but he doesn’t carry an imminent-breakout profile.

Limited athletically and effective mostly because of his brain and competitive nature, he would fit best on a team that could use him much as the Celtics do.

That means spot starts during the year, and perhaps in certain matchups in the playoffs, but a role that ultimately tops out at about 25 minutes per game. A career 37.9 percent shooter from long range and a capable defender against bigger opponents, he brings real value—just not in a full-time starter role.

That’s not to say rebuilders with cap space should ignore the 24-year-old, but it seems more likely offer sheets will come from teams that view Williams as a high-floor, low ceiling rotation player ready to mix it up in April and May.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if someone exceeded the $12.2 million midlevel exception in an offer to Williams, which might be near the cutoff line for Boston to quickly match. Anything north of $15 million should make the Celtics sweat.

Prediction: Williams and Boston agree on a four-year, $52 million contract.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report’s Dan Favale.